Parameterising a model for the emergence and spread of Viral Haemorrhagic Fevers (zoonoses) in West Africa

Richard Kock (primary)
Pathobiology and Population Science
Royal Veterinary College
Deborah Watson-Jones (secondary)
Department of Clinical Research
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Abstract

The scale of the recent outbreak of Ebola in West Africa in 2014 overwhelmed West African health systems and smaller outrbeaks continue regularly in the wider region with the most recent in Democratic Republic of Congo in 2018. Lassa Fever Virus persistence and emergence is creating a considerable burden on the health systems especially those supporting expanding agricultural and settlement communities in the region. The most recent outbreak drawing global attention in Nigeria in 2018. Some hundreds of thousands of infections are estimated annually and tens of thousands of mortalities. Important research questions to study remain, particularly those related to the role of the current rural development pathways and associated risk of disease emergence from peri-domestic animal reservoirs (wild and domesticated animals). This project aims to address these questions using a combination of modelling and fieldwork, identifying spill-over into and, potential epidemiological roles of peri-domestic species and key infrastructure or development drivers of these infections spill-over. The results will be important for future planning towards preventing VHF outbreaks, while the methods developed should be broadly applicable to a variety of diseases in a number of settings.


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BBSRC Area
Animal disease, health and welfare
Area of Biology
Microbiology
Techniques & Approaches
Molecular BiologySimulation / Modelling